Despite Positive Signs, We Are Still in a Bear Market


Bear markets sure are exhausting. The economy and markets have flashed positive signs lately, but make no mistake – we are still in a bear market.

I want this bear market to be over, too – trust me! Knowing that a new bull market lies on the other side of “bear mountain” has all of us anxious. Bull markets are much more fun to be in. They’re easier to trade; plus, who doesn’t like to celebrate higher stock prices as we build our wealth?

Bullish signs are starting to stack up

Last week’s job report was very strong; the number of new jobs created was more than double the estimate. That would be a positive for economic growth, but it runs straight into the Fed’s policy to drive down growth and cool off inflation. The Fed will not be changing this policy anytime soon.

The markets have roared back from deep lows in June and they are now up 14% or more in just seven weeks. That is quite the move higher, and it has been dragged out with dripping volatility. It has fueled speculative juices and the risk-on, dip-buying crowd has picked up the pieces. Just look at the higher lows in the charts, and you can see their effect on the markets.

Sentiment is starting to turn bullish, but the wall of worry is up – way up.

But we are still in a bear market

And even though things look great, some businesses are struggling for numerous reasons (tight labor market, supply chain issues, higher costs across the board).

This is still a bear market, and it’s still easy to lose money on trades. Wait until a new bullish trend is established before jumping in feet first. It’s not easy to wait for the right pitch to come across the plate before taking a swing, but it’s the best way to win at this crazy game called trading.



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